Singapore Property Market: Slowing Down—or Becoming More Selective?

URA's Q3 flash estimate put overall private residential prices 1.4% higher quarter-on-quarter, versus 0.5% in Q2. Non-landed prices rose 0.9%: CCR fell 0.1%, RCR rose 0.2% and OCR rose 2.2%. Landed prices rose 2.8%.

URA reported 4,296 private residential transactions in Q3 versus 6,148 in Q2, about 30% lower. But the Q3 count covers only up to mid-September, so it is not a completed-quarter collapse. The headline also includes landed homes and primary and secondary transactions—not condo resale alone.

For August resale condos, SRX estimated 1,040 transactions, down 0.4% from the revised July count of 1,044, down 7.2% year-on-year and 9.4% below the five-year August average. Prices fell 0.3% month-on-month but remained 2.2% higher year-on-year.

SRX's August regional resale price movements were CCR −4.3%, RCR +0.5% and OCR +0.8% month-on-month. A monthly resale index and URA's national quarterly index cover different periods, markets and methodologies, so they should not be treated as contradictory versions of one number.

Developers sold 153 new private homes excluding ECs in August, down 79.1% from 731 in July.

There were 116 new units launched, down 87% from 889 in July. No major project launched during August, so the release calendar and available supply contributed to the low count.

Monthly sales should not be divided by monthly launches to claim an absorption rate because homes from earlier launches can also be sold in the month.

The HDB resale price index fell 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the Q3 flash estimate, after falls of 0.1% in Q1 and 0.3% in Q2—the third consecutive quarterly decline.

There were 7,528 resale transactions through 29 September, 5.2% more than in the same period a year earlier.

A modest index decline and higher activity can coexist. Neither says what an individual flat gained or lost.

Employment excluding migrant domestic workers grew by 11,400 in Q2 2026, continuing the expansion. Resident employment rose by 2,200, slower than the 5,400 increase in Q1, while non-resident employment rose by 9,200, driven by Work Permit holders in construction and manufacturing.

Resident employment growth included transport and storage, public administration and education, health and social services, professional services, financial services, and information and communications. The composition does not support a claim that all new jobs were low wage or that resident professional employment disappeared.

Retrenchments increased and vacancies declined, mainly among PMET openings in finance and information and communications. Even so, there were 1.48 vacancies per unemployed person, so the picture is one of continued labour demand alongside greater uncertainty in some sectors—not a uniform deterioration.

These are Q2 labour-market results released in September—not September job counts. Net employment growth is not the same thing as vacancies, salaries or job security, and this report does not establish the wages or intentions of condo buyers.

MTI reported on 11 August that Q2 GDP grew 5.9% year-on-year and raised its 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%–5.5%. That is an August backdrop, not a new September upgrade; no verified Q3 GDP figure is used here.

In August, MAS core inflation rose to 2.2% year-on-year from 2.0% in July, while headline inflation rose to 2.3% from 2.2%. The core pickup reflected services, retail and other goods, and food—not oil alone.

Reuters reported on 30 September that the expiring November Brent contract gained 14% over September and closed at US$103.50; the active December contract closed at US$98.03. Contract series differ, so we report the September rise rather than presenting either as a current spot price.

SP's Q4 2026 electricity tariff is 28.59 cents per kWh before GST. EMA explains that the fuel component uses the average gas price over the first 2.5 months of the preceding quarter, so current oil headlines are not identical to current bills.

Amberwood at Holland sold 23 of 212 homes during its launch weekend: 10.8% of the full development, or 32.9% of the 70 units released in its first phase. The achieved average was $3,019 psf.

Lucerne Grand recorded 351 bookings out of all 570 homes in the 3 October opening-day booking exercise, or 61.58%. Its achieved average price and unit-type breakdown were not verified as at 4 October.

These are different periods and denominators: a launch-weekend result against Amberwood's total and first-phase release, versus Lucerne's opening-day bookings against all homes. They are not a like-for-like ranking.

An upgrader's real question is not whether HDB and private-property indices moved in opposite directions. It is the gap between net flat-sale proceeds and the condo's full purchase costs, while preserving a sensible cash buffer.

A simple hypothetical: if the target condo becomes $50,000 more expensive while expected flat-sale proceeds fall $20,000, the upgrade funding gap widens by $70,000 before legal fees, renovation, financing and other changes. This is arithmetic, not a forecast.

That does not assume all HDB prices are falling or all condos are rising. It shows why each side of the move must be updated using relevant comparables.